FBK Karlstadvs
AFC Eskilstuna
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Norra · 10/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Eskilstuna · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FBK Karlstad 2-2 AFC Eskilstuna
Original prediction
AFC Eskilstuna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 37.1% | 33.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.0% | 26.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.8% | 40.4% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
AFC Eskilstuna
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
AFC Eskilstuna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20