GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/23/2025, 2:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

FBC Melgar · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0

Highconfidence

FBC Melgar are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Puerto Cabello are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and FBC Melgar hold a 2.8-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 42.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while FBC Melgar holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

FBC Melgar

Probability

41.9%

Model confidence

41.9%

FBC Melgar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

FBC MelgarLLLWD

GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Puerto CabelloLWLDD

GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FBC MelgarPuerto Cabello
33.3Attack28.6
66.7Defence57.1
33.3Form38.1
45.3Power42.5
1.20xG0.79
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