FBC Melgarvs
Deportivo Garcilaso
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FBC Melgar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo Garcilaso
Original prediction
FBC Melgar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 63.6% | 45.6% | -18.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.35 | 21.4% | 26.5% | 5.1 pts |
| Away | 6.20 | 15.0% | 28.0% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
FBC Melgar
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
FBC Melgar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80