FBC Melgarvs
ADT
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/6/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FBC Melgar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FBC Melgar 3-0 ADT
Original prediction
FBC Melgar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 66.7% | 65.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.8% | 20.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 7.34 | 12.5% | 13.8% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
FBC Melgar
Probability
65.6%
Model confidence
65.6%
FBC Melgar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00