Fazendensevs
Estrela
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estrela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fazendense 1-2 Estrela
Original prediction
Estrela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 22.72 | 4.0% | 36.6% | 32.6 pts |
| Draw | 7.88 | 11.7% | 22.4% | 10.7 pts |
| Away | 1.09 | 84.3% | 41.0% | -43.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-43.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Estrela
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Estrela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80