Fatih Karagümrükvs
Somaspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · Türkiye Kupası · 10/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fatih Karagümrük · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Somaspor
Original prediction
Fatih Karagümrük
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 01:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 69.6% | 43.8% | -25.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.03 | 18.1% | 24.9% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 7.46 | 12.3% | 31.4% | 19.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.03 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Fatih Karagümrük
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Fatih Karagümrük has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20