Fatih Karagümrükvs
Muğlaspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fatih Karagümrük · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Muğlaspor, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Muğlaspor
Original prediction
Fatih Karagümrük
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 52.5% | 40.0% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.3% | 30.3% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.30 | 21.2% | 29.7% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Projected Score
Fatih Karagümrük 0–0 Muğlaspor
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Fatih Karagümrük
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Fatih Karagümrük has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00