Fatih Karagümrükvs
Manisa F.K.
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fatih Karagümrük · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Manisa F.K.
Original prediction
Fatih Karagümrük
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.5% | 39.1% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 28.0% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.5% | 32.9% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Fatih Karagümrük
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Fatih Karagümrük has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80