Fatih Karagümrükvs
Keçiörengücü
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 10/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Keçiörengücü · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Keçiörengücü
Original prediction
Keçiörengücü
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.9% | 26.1% | -12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.1% | 24.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 34.0% | 49.4% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Keçiörengücü
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Keçiörengücü has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40