Fatih Karagümrükvs
Kayserispor
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fatih Karagümrük · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Kayserispor
Original prediction
Fatih Karagümrük
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 36.0% | 42.7% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.2% | 28.6% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 35.8% | 28.7% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Fatih Karagümrük
Probability
42.7%
Model confidence
42.7%
Fatih Karagümrük has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80