Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FAS · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FAS 3-1 Firpo
Original prediction
FAS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 39.3% | 37.3% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.1% | 28.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.5% | 33.8% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
FAS
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
FAS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FASLWDLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
FirpoDWWDW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
FASFirpo
55.6Attack53.3
66.7Defence93.3
55.6Form73.3
58.8Power73.0
1.13xG1.08