Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FAS · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FAS 2-1 Alianza
Original prediction
FAS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 50.0% | 55.2% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.9% | 25.1% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.1% | 19.7% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
FAS
Probability
55.2%
Model confidence
55.2%
FAS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FASWWLWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
AlianzaLDWDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FASAlianza
58.3Attack42.9
70.8Defence57.1
66.7Form42.9
65.4Power49.1
1.65xG0.74