Farstavs
Nacka Iliria
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Södra Svealand · 8/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farsta · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 4-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farsta 4-1 Nacka Iliria
Original prediction
Farsta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.7% | 76.5% | 22.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.8% | 13.6% | -9.3 pts |
| Away | 3.86 | 23.5% | 9.9% | -13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–012%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.4–010%
Predicted outcome
Farsta
Probability
76.5%
Model confidence
76.5%
Farsta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00