Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farsta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 4-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farsta 3-2 Lindo FF
Original prediction
Farsta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 72.1% | 81.3% | 9.2 pts |
| Draw | 5.45 | 16.8% | 11.6% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 8.17 | 11.2% | 7.0% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–011%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.4–09%
Predicted outcome
Farsta
Probability
81.3%
Model confidence
81.3%
Farsta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FarstaWWDLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Lindo FFLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FarstaLindo FF
68.0Attack44.0
64.0Defence30.7
65.3Form26.7
65.3Power35.3
3.40xG0.81