Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farsta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farsta 2-1 Fittja
Original prediction
Farsta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 72.9% | 59.2% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.79 | 15.7% | 21.5% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 7.96 | 11.4% | 19.3% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Farsta
Probability
59.2%
Model confidence
59.2%
Farsta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FarstaDLWWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
FittjaLWLDL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FarstaFittja
68.1Attack52.2
63.8Defence47.8
62.3Form47.8
63.9Power51.1
2.43xG1.02