Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farense 1-4 Penafiel
Original prediction
Farense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.8% | 43.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 26.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 25.0% | 29.7% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Farense
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Farense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FarenseWWWWD
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
PenafielLLDWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
FarensePenafiel
61.9Attack66.7
71.4Defence66.7
66.7Form61.9
67.0Power64.9
1.35xG1.09