Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Farense 1-0 Feirense, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Farense 2-1 Feirense
Original prediction
Farense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 54.2% | 59.6% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.3% | 24.1% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.71 | 19.5% | 16.3% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Projected Score
Farense 1–0 Feirense
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Farense
Probability
59.6%
Model confidence
59.6%
Farense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FarenseWWDLD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FeirenseLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
FarenseFeirense
61.1Attack5.6
72.2Defence55.6
61.1Form5.6
64.5Power26.1
1.76xG0.55