Farensevs
AD Marco 09
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farense 3-0 AD Marco 09
Original prediction
Farense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 70.3% | 46.6% | -23.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.75 | 19.2% | 25.5% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 8.65 | 10.5% | 27.9% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Farense
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Farense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40