Farense U23vs
União Leiria U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Farense U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farense U23 1-2 União Leiria U23
Original prediction
Farense U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.0% | 38.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.5% | 29.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.5% | 32.1% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Farense U23
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Farense U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20