Farense U23vs
Famalicão U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Famalicão U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Farense U23 4-3 Famalicão U23
Original prediction
Famalicão U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.6% | 31.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 27.9% | 23.8% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.5% | 44.4% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Famalicão U23
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Famalicão U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20