Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fanja · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fanja 3-1 Al Nasr
Original prediction
Fanja
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 19:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.02 | 29.8% | 35.7% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.3% | 28.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 42.0% | 35.4% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Fanja
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Fanja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FanjaLDLLD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Al NasrDWWLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FanjaAl Nasr
33.3Attack50.0
44.4Defence16.7
22.2Form16.7
36.4Power31.3
1.59xG1.34