Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Falu BS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Falu BS 3-0 Gute
Original prediction
Falu BS
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.8% | 50.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.4% | 24.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 23.8% | 25.4% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Falu BS
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Falu BS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Falu BSLLLDW
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
GuteLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Falu BSGute
51.4Attack48.6
58.3Defence51.4
56.9Form44.4
56.7Power49.0
1.69xG1.11