Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Falu BS · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Falu BS 2-3 Angby
Original prediction
Falu BS
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.6% | 37.4% | -12.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.7% | 26.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.7% | 35.8% | 10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Falu BS
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Falu BS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Falu BSLDWWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AngbyLWWDW
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Falu BSAngby
53.0Attack69.7
62.1Defence62.1
62.1Form68.2
60.2Power66.7
1.30xG1.51