Falkirkvs
Kilmarnock
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Falkirk · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Falkirk 3-0 Kilmarnock
Original prediction
Falkirk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 06:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 50.4% | 47.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.9% | 26.5% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 24.8% | 25.7% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Falkirk
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Falkirk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FalkirkWLDWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
KilmarnockWLDWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
FalkirkKilmarnock
33.3Attack37.0
55.6Defence25.9
33.3Form29.6
43.7Power34.0
1.64xG0.91