Falkirkvs
Heart Of Midlothian
COMPLETEDScotland · Premiership · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heart Of Midlothian · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Falkirk 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian
Original prediction
Heart Of Midlothian
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.75 | 24.9% | 21.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.2% | 24.5% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 49.0% | 53.7% | 4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Heart Of Midlothian
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
Heart Of Midlothian has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80