Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Fakel are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Zenit are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Zenit hold a 71.3-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 98.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.9% in the Premier League, while Zenit holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Zenit
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
11.9%
Zenit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60