Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fakel 0-1 Zenit
Original prediction
Zenit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.93 | 15.9% | 24.6% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 24.1% | 25.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 59.9% | 49.7% | -10.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Zenit
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Zenit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FakelDLLDL
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ZenitLDWLW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
FakelZenit
50.0Attack100.0
16.7Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
26.7Power98.0
1.13xG1.83