Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fakel · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Fakel are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Qizilqum are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fakel hold a 10.3-point power-rating edge (55.6 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Fakel holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fakel
Probability
45.0%
Model confidence
14.2%
Fakel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20