Fakel Voronezhvs
Lokomotiv Moscow
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 10/10/2026, 12:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fakel Voronezh 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fakel Voronezh 0-5 Lokomotiv Moscow
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.90 | 32.8% | 30.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 29.3% | 32.0% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.9% | 37.1% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Projected Score
Fakel Voronezh 0–0 Lokomotiv Moscow
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.0%
Model confidence
37.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Fakel VoronezhWLDLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Lokomotiv MoscowWLDLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Fakel VoronezhLokomotiv Moscow
22.2Attack29.6
51.9Defence59.3
11.1Form25.9
31.7Power41.3
0.72xG0.85