Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Fakel are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lokomotiv are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWWL), averaging 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lokomotiv hold a 15.4-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 42.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.9% in the Premier League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.9%
Model confidence
33.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80