Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Fakel are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while FC Sochi are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Sochi hold a 27.0-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 50.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.6% in the Cup, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20