Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fakel · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 01:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.06 | 30.7% | 38.7% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.3% | 29.3% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 40.1% | 32.1% | -8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Fakel
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Fakel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FakelLWWLW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AkhmatLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FakelAkhmat
33.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence41.7
33.3Form33.3
45.9Power39.1
1.39xG0.93