Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baltika · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fakel 2-2 Baltika
Original prediction
Baltika
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 27.7% | 29.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 31.9% | 28.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 40.4% | 42.2% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Baltika
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Baltika has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FakelLDLDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
BaltikaLDWDD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FakelBaltika
50.0Attack55.6
16.7Defence66.7
0.0Form66.7
26.7Power64.7
1.18xG1.63