Fakel U19vs
Chertanovo U20
COMPLETEDRussia · Youth Championship · 10/9/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chertanovo U20 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fakel U19 2-1 Chertanovo U20
Original prediction
Chertanovo U20
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.86 | 31.5% | 34.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.2% | 22.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.3% | 42.2% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Chertanovo U20
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Chertanovo U20 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20