Fagiano Okayamavs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/6/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fagiano Okayama 3-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.76 | 24.8% | 25.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.0% | 27.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 49.2% | 47.3% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60