Fagiano Okayamavs
Mito Hollyhock
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Mito Hollyhock
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 52.9% | 43.8% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.6% | 26.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.57 | 20.5% | 29.9% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00