Fagiano Okayamavs
Kyoto Sanga
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Kyoto Sanga
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 49.8% | 57.0% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.7% | 22.9% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 23.4% | 20.1% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60