Fagiano Okayamavs
JEF United Chiba
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 10/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fagiano Okayama 1-0 JEF United Chiba
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.2% | 49.2% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.2% | 25.7% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 4.66 | 19.6% | 25.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40