Fagiano Okayamavs
Beluga Rosso Iwami
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 8/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fagiano Okayama 3-0 Beluga Rosso Iwami
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.04 | 89.1% | 51.0% | -38.1 pts |
| Draw | 11.70 | 7.9% | 23.4% | 15.5 pts |
| Away | 31.10 | 3.0% | 25.6% | 22.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-38.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00