Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fafe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Fafe 1-0 Trofense, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Fafe 2-2 Trofense
Original prediction
Fafe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.8% | 48.1% | -10.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.2% | 28.4% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 5.68 | 16.1% | 23.4% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.6 pts
Projected Score
Fafe 1–0 Trofense
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Fafe
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Fafe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FafeWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TrofenseLDLWL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FafeTrofense
53.3Attack13.3
73.3Defence53.3
53.3Form26.7
60.1Power34.5
1.54xG0.63