Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fafe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Fafe 4-0 Lajense
Original prediction
Fafe
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 68.9% | 49.5% | -19.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 20.5% | 24.8% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 8.58 | 10.5% | 25.7% | 15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Fafe
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Fafe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FafeLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LajenseDLWWL
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FafeLajense
33.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence11.1
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power29.5
1.96xG1.43