Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Faetano 0-4 Tre Fiori
Original prediction
Tre Fiori
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 17.91 | 5.1% | 24.5% | 19.4 pts |
| Draw | 7.50 | 12.1% | 23.1% | 11.0 pts |
| Away | 1.10 | 82.8% | 52.4% | -30.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
52.4%
Model confidence
52.4%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FaetanoLLLWL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Tre FioriWLLLL
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FaetanoTre Fiori
0.0Attack100.0
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power80.3
1.38xG1.86