Faetanovs
Fiorentino
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentino · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Faetano 0-6 Fiorentino
Original prediction
Fiorentino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.00 | 15.0% | 26.7% | 11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.8% | 25.9% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.45 | 62.2% | 47.4% | -14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentino
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Fiorentino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20