FA Šiauliai IIvs
Kauno Žalgiris II
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 10/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FA Šiauliai II · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FA Šiauliai II 3-3 Kauno Žalgiris II
Original prediction
FA Šiauliai II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 40.7% | 38.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.3% | 25.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.0% | 36.1% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
FA Šiauliai II
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
FA Šiauliai II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80