FA Šiauliai IIvs
Garliava
COMPLETEDLithuania · 1 Lyga · 10/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Garliava · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FA Šiauliai II 2-3 Garliava
Original prediction
Garliava
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.9% | 25.2% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.7% | 23.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.4% | 51.3% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Garliava
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Garliava has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 14 · avg 2.20/2.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60