Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FA 2000 0-2 HIK
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.6% | 34.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.34 | 27.1% | 30.0% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.3% | 35.4% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
FA 2000LDLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
HIKWDLDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
FA 2000HIK
30.6Attack27.8
30.6Defence47.2
16.7Form33.3
29.4Power39.2
1.01xG1.09