Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Express 0-0 UPDF, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Express 1-2 UPDF
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 47.1% | 37.4% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 29.9% | 33.1% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.89 | 22.9% | 29.5% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Projected Score
Express 0–0 UPDF
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.1%
Model confidence
37.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ExpressDDLWL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
UPDFWDLDL
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ExpressUPDF
20.0Attack16.7
73.3Defence83.3
33.3Form41.7
44.0Power50.3
0.73xG0.68