GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/16/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Cardiff · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Exeter City are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Cardiff are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 1 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cardiff hold a 28.4-point power-rating edge (17.9 v 46.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Cardiff holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Cardiff

Probability

41.9%

Model confidence

41.9%

Cardiff has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Exeter CityLLWLW

GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00

BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
CardiffDWWWW

GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Exeter CityCardiff
11.1Attack41.7
0.0Defence41.7
33.3Form50.0
17.9Power46.3
1.56xG1.86
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