GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 12/10/2024, 7:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3

Highconfidence

Exeter City are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Birmingham are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Birmingham hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (17.9 v 74.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.9% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 76% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

75.9%

Model confidence

75.9%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Exeter CityLDLLD

GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
BirminghamWWWLD

GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Exeter CityBirmingham
11.1Attack79.2
0.0Defence70.8
33.3Form79.2
17.9Power74.6
0.89xG3.04
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