GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:15:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Arsenal U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Exeter City are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Arsenal U21 are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (DL), averaging 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal U21 hold a 21.8-point power-rating edge (17.9 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Arsenal U21 holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Arsenal U21

Probability

44.7%

Model confidence

44.7%

Arsenal U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Exeter CityLLLWL

GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Arsenal U21DL

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/2.00

BTTS 2/2O2.5 2/2
Exeter CityArsenal U21
11.1Attack75.0
0.0Defence16.7
33.3Form33.3
17.9Power39.7
1.89xG2.31
View match centre →