Excursionistasvs
Villa San Carlos
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 10/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Excursionistas 1-0 Villa San Carlos, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Excursionistas 4-0 Villa San Carlos
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.4% | 56.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.5% | 28.0% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.24 | 17.2% | 16.0% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Projected Score
Excursionistas 1–0 Villa San Carlos
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20